Paul Coomes, Ph.D.
The economic foundation of Hardin County has changed significantly over the past five decades, and is about to see its biggest change since the BRAC Transformation of Fort Knox from 2005-2010. Fort Knox has historically been the area’s largest driver of annual payroll, though manufacturing has clearly been rising in importance. The BlueOval SK (BOSK) electric vehicle battery plant, and attendant suppliers, will probably double manufacturing employment in the County over the next few years, bringing greater balance and diversity to an already vibrant economy.
I recently partnered with the Louisville-based consulting firm L.B. Schmidt & Associates to study the anticipated transformative influence of the Glendale development on Hardin County and the region. Commissioned by the Hardin County Chamber of Commerce and several supporting businesses, the study provides estimates of the expected economic and demographic changes coming to the region.
In our research, we studied “boomtowns” that have undergone circumstances akin to those expected for the Elizabethtown area. For instance, we studied Georgetown, Kentucky, to examine the siting of the Toyota Motor Manufacturing Kentucky in 1985. And we studied Reno, Nevada due to its proximity to Gigafactory Nevada, a facility producing lithium-ion batteries
and electric vehicle components for Tesla, which commenced operations in 2016. While the Elizabethtown region shares similarities with these communities, there exists no exact parallel to the distinctive circumstances arising from BlueOval SK. In studying these other places, we noted the impact that the major manufacturing facilities had on total employment, the number of residents, housing, schools, and health care facilities. We used these case studies to make projections based on the announced BOSK employment plans. We anticipate population growth of 22,380 in Hardin County, 8,800 new housing units, an increased enrollment of 3,901 new K – 12 students, the need for 75 new hospital beds, 389 new hospital jobs and 380 new ambulatory (medical services performed on an outpatient basis, without admission to a hospital or other facility) jobs. We expect the battery park to support 8,016 total jobs in the region, including 5,000 new jobs at the plant and 3,016 new regional spinoff jobs. This reflects an employment multiplier of 1.603. That multiplier is no doubt too low, given that it represents the historical industrial structure of the County, and not the likely deepening of the local supply chain as businesses move in to serve the battery plant. I suspect the region will see more growth than what we have projected. Local decision makers, public and private, have a challenge preparing for such significant growth, though a challenge that most communities in Kentucky and beyond would envy.
Paul Coomes is Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of Louisville, and a private economic consultant. He was chair of the economics department at U of L, and past president of the Kentucky Economic Association. His scholarly research has appeared in many journals, including Journal of Urban Economics and the Journal of Regional Science.
Column Published in the News-Enterprise on August 28, 2023
